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Sunday, May 20, 2012 | |
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Lesson 11
The Investment Environment
Copyright 2005 by Milton Garber Companies do not exist in a vacuum. They exist in countries and in the world; consequently, there are both national and international factors that shape the investment environment. In general terms a favorable investment climate is one marked by peace, prosperity and predictability.
General conditions of economic prosperity favor all companies and hence all stocks. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats. War, on the other hand, benefits companies that sell to the military; however, most companies do not and most companies prosper more in peace time than in war time. Not only war but also civil violence such as that stemming from insurrections, revolutions and organized crime are disruptive to economic prosperity. Predictability is also essential to business success and hence to the success of investments in business. A company must be able to plan with some degree of assurance regarding the continued availability of capital, raw materials, supplies, labor sources, and markets. A lack of some minimal degree of predictability, or “visibility,” with respect to a company’s business prospects is a heavy strike against that company in the minds of most investors.  Khrap to You From Boomer! On June 17, 2005, a new feature appeared in the Jefferson City business networking website known as ebiztobiz. It was this blog. Ebiztobiz executive Nanci King asked me if I would consider writing a short blurp for their daily internet publication. It would be known as “The Ultimate Buzz”. I agreed to do it on a trial basis. That was 1655 blurps ago. When I agreed to write the blog, I decided to do it under the pseudonym of “A. Boomer” rather than my real name. I had 2 reasons: 1. If it sucked, no one knew it was me; and, 2. Since my real job involved commissioned sales, I didn’t want people taking their business elsewhere if they disagreed with something I wrote. I wasn’t getting paid to write, but I didn’t want to go in the hole. My identity was a closely guarded secret – for about 3 months. Then clues from what I had written began to narrow the search for my identity. The first big leak occurred when I wrote about a wedding I attended in Springfield. I mentioned that Greg and Stephanie Gaffke were honored as having been married the longest of any couple at the wedding. My wife and I came in second. Though Greg wasn’t aware of the blog, Steve Duncan had been reading the blog daily and was curious about the author. When Steve asked Greg who might have written about the wedding, Greg narrowed it down to the only other couple from Jefferson City – my wife and me. About that time I was considering discontinuing the blog because of a lack of feedback. Not long after the wedding I walked into Atkins stadium with my son on a cool September evening and was confronted by Mr. Duncan: Are you A. Boomer?” he asked. When I admitted I was A. Boomer, Steve said the magic words. “I love your blog! It’s the first thing I read every morning!” I was suddenly elated and reinvigorated. I don’t recall who won the game, but I will never forget Steve’s encouraging words. All thoughts of discontinuing the blog after only 3 months vanished. Until now- 78 months later. This, my 1656th blog, will be the last – for now, at least. After the equivalent of blogging 24 hours a day for 138 days and generating approximately one million words, A. Boomer will be taking some time off. I am following the advice of Yogi Berra, who once said “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” But first, I’d like to give credit where credit is due. To everyone who: 1. Read the blog; and/or 2. Offered encouragement or constructive criticism; and/or 3. Sent me potential blog ideas, I’d like to say, in your native language – thanks: Gracias (Spanish) – Merci (French) – Grazie (Italian) - Danke (German) –M goi nei sin (Chinese) - Mahalo (Hawaiian) – Spasibo (Russian) –Gratias (Latin) – Ank-thay ou-yay (Pig Latin), and, my favorite, Khrap! (Thai). Thanks also to Nanci King for coming up with the idea and prodding me into giving it a shot. It lasted way beyond either of our expectations. Most of all, thanks to my wife for being my biggest critic, biggest supporter, and also my biggest source of material. Just in case there is anyone who still doesn’t know the true identity of A. Boomer, I will now officially reveal it: My name is Ottovordemgentschenfelde. Bernt Ottovordemgentschenfelde. Just kidding. My name is Doug Reece. And I still welcome your emails to aboomer@embarqmail.com Thanks for reading! -- (March 29) Email us your thoughts about our newest feature 
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